In 2017, Tommy Lee forecasted #Bitcoin would cross the $100,000 mark.
I received an alert: “Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high of $99,261 USD. This is an increase of +47.64% since last month.”
Whether you believe in #cryptocurrencies or not isn’t the point. The point is you must understand what they are and what they represent to make the right decision and fall into the trap of FOMO (fear of missing out).
Contextual Knowledge:
Bitcoin is both a cryptocurrency and the name of its underlying #Blockchain network
To hold Bitcoin, you need a Bitcoin wallet or an online service that manages the wallet (though technically, you aren’t the direct owner)
You can transact in Bitcoin via your wallet or a Bitcoin Visa Card
Bitcoin is considered “digital #gold” – a store of value that historically outperforms other asset classes, with an average yearly return of approximately 182%
Bitcoin’s volatility is unparalleled: -64.3% in 2022, +155.4% in 2023
Bitcoin #ETF (or ETP in Europe) represents the traditional finance-approved version. In 2023, #Blackrock issuing a Bitcoin ETF did send a strong signal
Some businesses are diversifying investments through Bitcoin, with #MicroStrategy holding approximately 331,200 bitcoins as a strategic asset
El Salvador has adopted Bitcoin as its official national currency
Why the current boom?
President Donald Trump, known as a “pro-crypto” leader, has been making strategic moves. After issuing two #NFT collections in 2022 and 2023, he launched “The Defiant Ones” #DeFi platform with his sons Eric and Donald Jr. Trump.
Musk, notorious for supporting the #Dogecoin community, has seen the cryptocurrency soar by 193.44% in a month, with a pivotal moment on November 5th, 2024 – the US election day.
Markets aren’t always rational, but the sequence of events always tells a story.
Golden Rule: If you do not understand the product, do not invest.
I was first introduced to the term VUCA by my ex-colleague, Julian TROIAN, a leader in coaching who steers the talent management practice. This revelation came during a particularly challenging phase for us, mirroring the struggles of many other companies. We found ourselves navigating the intricacies of the COVID lockdown while simultaneously undergoing a significant shift in the corporate way of working. Our project portfolio was expanding, driven by the rapid pace of transformations, and we felt the weight of increasing regulatory pressures. But we recognized that these challenges were not ours alone. Then, significant disturbances emerged: the Eastern Europe conflict and a surge in inflation, to name a few.
Moreover, the world stood on the brink of simultaneous technological revolutions. Innovations like blockchain and the nascent promise of the metaverse hinted at new horizons. Yet, it was the seismic shifts brought on by Generative Artificial Intelligence that seemed most profound.
VUCA is an acronym encapsulating the themes of vulnerability, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Herbert Barber coined the term in 1992 based on the book “Leaders: The Strategies for Taking Charge”. I believe many can relate to these elements, sensing their presence in both professional settings—perhaps during office hours—and in personal moments with family.
Life, in its essence, might be described by this very term. We all traverse peaks and lows, facing situations of heightened complexity or vulnerability. The challenge is not just to navigate these periods but to foster strength and ingenuity, arming ourselves for future obstacles.
I consider myself fortunate to have garnered knowledge in enterprise architecture—a domain that inherently equips any organization, product, or service with resilience, making adaptability part of its very DNA.
In the subsequent sections, I explore strategies for developing VUCA antibodies.
From Vulnerability to Resilience: Building an Unshakable Future
Rather than getting bogged down by vulnerabilities, it’s about harnessing resilience. Robustness is the key to building thick layers of protection, ensuring longevity in our ventures. By deliberately creating anti-fragile mechanisms, we’re better prepared for tough times. This resilience doesn’t just happen; it’s constructed. Architects weave it into their designs across various realms:
Information Systems: These are designed to be failure resistant. Potential mistakes and erratic behaviors are predicted and integrated into the system as possible anomalies. In such events, responsible teams must give clear procedures to users, operators, and administrators to restore the system to its standard operational mode.
Data Management: From acquisition and processing to analytics and visualization, there’s complete control over the data flowing into the system. This range from a service request made over the phone, a command initiated by an AI, or even a tweet that prompts the system to respond.
Security: Safeguarding the system against potential hacks is crucial. Additionally, it’s vital to design the system in a way that vulnerabilities don’t open doors for intrusions. Depending on the chosen architectural delivery method, this can be addressed proactively or reactively.
Infrastructure: The foundational physical infrastructure, tailored to the system’s needs, must be aptly dimensioned. At times, specialized hardware like GPU-driven servers, or programmable network devices might be essential to cater to particular needs during both the development and operational phases.
Organization: People, integral to the corporate ecosystem, influence the system’s effectiveness. Their actions and behaviors enhance system efficiency, especially when elements like trust, making amends for failures, regular maintenance, and adaptability to change are activated.
All these aspects aren’t mere byproducts; they’re deliberately designed system features.
From Uncertainty to Probable Planning: Navigating with Confidence Through Uncertain Waters
Predicting the future is beyond anyone’s capability, but architects can narrow down scenarios to the most probable outcomes. Through modeling techniques like system design, trend analysis, scenario planning, and causal loops, they can forecast with a higher degree of accuracy. However, the planning phase isn’t without challenges:
Resources: There are times when constraints in time, finances, skills, and materials can make a proposed solution unfeasible. Recognizing this early on is vital.
Leadership: A wavering decision-maker, filled with doubt, can be a significant impediment. This is a leadership challenge that needs addressing at the top. In such a situation, the architect must highlight the unstable matter with benevolence and candor.
Team: The implementation is only as good as the team behind it. If team members don’t possess the necessary skills or their abilities don’t align with the mission’s complexity, especially when executing multiple plans simultaneously, it will compromise the execution of the plan.
Expertise: last but not least, the architect’s seniority and the time allocated to address your transformation’s VUCA elements also play a critical role.
From Complexity to Engineering: A Blueprint for Simplification
Sometimes, complexity arises from perception, misunderstanding, or underestimating a situation – often, it’s a mix of these elements.
Imagine you have three wooden chairs, and you wish to create a sofa. Is it even possible? Fortunately, Ikea offers a DIY toolbox that can help you realize this vision. When you describe your idea to the store specialist, she confidently directs you to aisles A8 to C12 for the necessary components. At first, you feel relief. But soon, doubts about your abilities confront you. Even with your experience in crafting wooden furniture, you’re unsure about the mechanisms you’ll need, the type of finish to choose, the tools required for precise cuts, and the best materials for durability. Are these materials environmentally friendly? This confusion and uncertainty are akin to experiencing VUCA.
The architect’s role is to first understand the complexity, determine the facts, and uncover what’s unknown, converting it to known information. Then, the challenge or problem is segmented into manageable pieces. I refer to this process as “Undesign.” The goal of undesigning is to get a clear and detailed view of the end goal by atomizing the current state, structure, and behavior. This is achieved through methods like decomposition, deconstruction, alternate system modeling, and sometimes reverse engineering. Subsequently, the architect uncovers a path to transform and assemble these components.
The essence of engineering is to assemble these components using identifiable, simple building blocks. These blocks are selected, modified, added, and connected in a logical order, ensuring the right materials, technologies, and tools are used. People with the right skills can then efficiently bring the project to life, ensuring it’s as seamless and enjoyable as possible. Even the user’s psychological experience matters!
In summary, what seems intricate and complex can be distilled into simpler, manageable parts.
From Ambiguity to Lucidity: Transitioning from Wishful Thinking to Tangible Outcomes
Architects don’t just exist in the present; they shape the future. Their responsibilities lie in meticulously designing and planning changes that will inevitably impact an organization’s products or services. Any vision, no matter how abstract, becomes initially tangible through their work. They ensure this by providing explicit construction instructions, detailed models of the final product, and ensuring the requisite resources and skills are in place. By doing so, architects play a pivotal role in turning ambiguity into precision.
Moreover, it’s the architect’s responsibility to align ambitions with the resources available, ensuring that goals are realistically achievable.
In wrapping up, VUCA can be perceived as a daunting challenge. But, with the right leaders onboard, RePEL becomes a natural response to unfriendly environments and stressful times. They hold the key to transforming volatile situations into clear, well-defined future pathways, keeping the enterprise entropy under control.
The recent bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a major financial institution has sent shockwaves throughout the startup world, particularly for those in the ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) and blockchain/cryptocurrency sectors. The impact of this bankruptcy could have far-reaching consequences, affecting not only startups but also venture capitalists and pension funds.
One of the major risks associated with this bankruptcy is the domino effect it could have on venture capitalists and pension funds. For example, Vanguard Group has 11.2% of its holdings in SVB, which has a significant stake in the ESG and blockchain/cryptocurrency industries. If SVB were to suffer from bankruptcy, it could have a ripple effect on investment firms, followed by a temporary loss of trust in the market.
Furthermore, its collapse could erode investor confidence in smaller regional banks and drive investment toward larger, “safer” banks. This shift in investor sentiment could make it more difficult for startups to secure funding and could hinder the growth of ESG innovations and DeFi initiatives.
It’s important to note that investors with significant influence in the markets, such as Peter Thiel (co-founder of PayPal), can have a major impact on market psychology. Whether right or wrong, their opinions can sway investor sentiment and potentially exacerbate the negative effects of downfall.
In light of these developments, startups should be vigilant and prepare for potential challenges in securing funding. Investors should also carefully consider the risks associated with investing in these industries and the potential impact of external factors such as bankruptcy cascade. Overall, the effects of this financial earthquake serve as a reminder of the interconnectedness of the financial world and the importance of being mindful of potential risks and challenges.
Cloud Computing in 2060 by Yannick HUCHARD - "In 2060" serie
I was busy with professor Gytek when a high-priority notification arrived, so I ask my AI family assistant for a voice reading.
“Good morning Yannick, you’ve spent 1704 CU this semester. The consumption is unusually high by 27% compared to the previous period.”.
I guess it is because my grandchildren are living with us since ‘that’ incident. And my work with professor Gytek is certainly for something. Sometimes I feel I turned like my old folks, thinking my civilian bills is a high priority!
It feels like ages ago when, in 2034, Europe voted for the General Digital Access Regulation or GDAR. The GDAR has invited country members to the standardization of digital facility services for all European citizens. The implications were multiple with some bonuses. It became mandatory to provide access to the Internet to residents. Therefore, at least a device was to be given for truly digital equality and sustainable civilization development. Hence all citizens could study, work, buy, and vote online free of “access fees”.
Today, each and everyone is connected, could it be brain-wired, phygital reality glasses, in-bone sensorial devices, you name it. Not that it is necessary, holographic coating comes by default now. Wall paints, object textures, and glasses contain diamond-shaped optical picobots that give the illusion of depth without wearing anything. Actually, holographic surrealism is the latest design trend! Consequently, it has created an outstanding dependency on Decentralized Cloud Computing and Centralized Cloud Computing Networks.
The first sign of significant transformation was post-COVID-19, which revealed the need for remote work.
The intense need started really in 2032 when governments realized they could not be relying only upon Google, Amazon, and Microsoft for the future of digital expansion. The main reason is that GDAR states the following foundation principle:
Article 3. Pursuant to legal principles of ownership and privacy, it is hereby declared that all data, computing resources, and services shall be considered the personal property of the individual to whom they belong. Any access to or utilization of said property by any third party must be fully authorized by the owner and must be recorded in the EU Secure Non-Repudiable Ledger for the purposes of personal auditing and consumer accountability. Any unauthorized access or use of such property shall be deemed a violation of the owner’s rights, and may subject the offending party to legal action.
The negotiation with US and Chinese companies demonstrated the frail adherence to these requirements. Sometimes there were even reluctant to do so, which, considering the balance of the tripolar world order, was already quite an achievement. In parallel, to ensure national intelligence security, and intellectual property preservation, the only option left was to rely on a European Cloud.
This is when GAIA-X also became a so-called superunicorn company, switching from a federated cloud project to a single organization of a new kind: a European company, managed like a private company, with an obligation of result, but publicly owned by all state members, and, that’s a first, explicitly owned by the people. As a result, GAIA-X became ATHENA, and Octave Klaba, the founder of OVH Cloud, its CEO. What made it truly unique was the redistribution of benefits to the population; Indirectly, of course, but still, the business model was innovative, sustainable, and fair to citizens. The only thing you need to get started is your wallet!
During the same period, a new kind of Trade Exchange has been created: the EU Sovereign Trade Exchange, where only state citizens could buy and sell ATHENA’s shares and Computing Units tokens (CU). The latter serves as the foundation for receiving your free volume of TPU to satisfy your basic need as an individual and to extend the growth of enterprises based on how citizen wishes to invest in their business expansion.
The real benefit and the paradigm shift, at least for me, was computing becoming a utility resource like electricity and water. It changed everything:
Secondly, individuals can be CU providers when they have devices and servers producing more computing units than they consume. Nowadays, Cloudfluencers are the real deal!
Thirdly, all dwellings, devices appliances, were by default connected to your dHome Network, which is your dedicated network for privacy compliance. In 2034, the first GDAR amendment was issued in Luxembourg, where it forced all new construction and existing construction to incorporate a pluggable dHome network. Thus, the civil architecture standards and IT digital standards were upgraded and propagated throughout Europe. As a consequence, private-to-public Internet gateways were included in all housing plans by design.
Fourthly, connection to the Internet is also included. The network is software-generated and the adaptive routing is part of the civil infrastructure coming by Satellite’s PolyLight technology (which is the advanced distribution network using directed polyphasic beams of light, and each “column building” is a piece of architectural art), distributed electric grid network, where each device and vehicle act as a distribution node, or air using the old school 10G network used by the purists and the developers. Underground internet distribution is forbidden nowadays. You only had to select your Cloud Computing Providers for additional services, like on-demand Entertainment Services, the same way you used to subscribe to Netflix!
Finally, you had a single billing system where your utility invoices were sent directly to your EU Citizen One Stop Shop portal, the dHome, while payments were performed automatically (see Banking in 2060)
The security of ATHENA’s distributed network was the best.
The Core Network, BREW, was virtually inaccessible. The reason was simple, it was located in space. Its data center was a giant polyhedron, entirely built by machine. It is not that, nowadays, we do not trust humans, it is just that people trust the public and the unbias aspect of machine-generated code.
The most impressive was the servicing of qCPU. Each of them is unique, embedding in its core a set of private metamorphic keys only known and bound to the citizen. Then, the qCPU is printed on demand inside BREW autonomous factory. Furthermore, the qCPU is destroyed, recycled, then replaced periodically to ensure maximum security. Finally, human interventions, if any, are performed remotely, from ATHENA Earth Control Center, using a repair drone, which was shipped from the daily Falcon Cargo Shuttle.
“Where was I again… Ah, yes. Professor Gytek, we need to work out what is happening to you. This cannot happen again…”
I am sitting in my garden watching my granddaughter, Aleïs. She is playing with one of her advanced robotic toys, a Tyranausore Rex, and a ghost diplodocus. Yes, an invisible diplodocus. At least, this is what it looks like with my naked eyes. She is seeing more things despite she wears corrective glasses. In reality, she is playing with another digital dinosaur that only exists in the digital world. Glasses come with augmented reality by default, even for kids now. I remember when Apple launched them for the first time for the mainstream. I was just before the 5th digital revolution came, the age of the Phygital Internet
First, it was a gadget, it became rapidly a social advantage, to conclude as a social divide. It became indispensable when Apple partnered with major Glassmakers. Wearing glasses was no longer a sign of disability but a sign of “Augmentation”.
Suddenly Alëis sees virtual options popping atop The T-Rex. Some of them are locked and can only be obtained as “in-thing” payment. This kind of payment is sneaky but convenient, but sneaky! Of course, she wants to see the brand new flame animation coming out of her toy, and she wants to download cool dance moves like in Fortnite back in the day. She is into robotic animal engineering. She is much more skilled in information technologies than I was at her age. Like me, she is thrilled by trying and messing with new techs. I am so proud of her.
She taps on the menu to buy it. She is 14, and at this age, she cannot buy anything without the consent of one of her parents. One of the good features was family group management and sharing of financial assets and digital rights. Because I am an elder of her family, I receive her authorization to buy.
My Smartphone displays a notification. I smile because now they are holographic. And even when I am still amazed to see holograms popping out of the screen, smartphones are nowadays considered a relic from the past. Never mind, I am old anyway, I too am a relic. I should have died a long time ago. But they print organic lungs now, turning pneumonia into vintage flu. I put my finger on the notification and I approve with my face and my voice.
It reminded me of something. I say to Aleïs “There you go. You’re lucky, 15 years ago you couldn’t buy this option yourself”.
And she replied, “What do you mean, Papi Yannick?”.
“You see when I was younger, my mother had to go to the bank to open my account. I had to fill out some paper, present a printed copy of my national id card, and sign the paper with a pen. Later on, we could do it with our smartphones. Digital Onboarding was the coolest thing. We struggle to make it happen due to the strict regulations of the financial industry. Cyber fraud was high, and trust in the system was low. Eventually, the governments decided that laws had to be strictly enforced by code. You know, IT programming. Actually, this was the birth of the now famous expression “In Code We Trust”. Now everything is different. I mean normal for you but different for me. Ever since financial matters entered the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, it did change a lot for the good. Now each human has a bank account the moment they land on planet earth. It is a birthright. Of course, they have to pay if they want more options, like your T-rex! If I recall correctly, Mankind agreed on changing the law after the COVID-19 pandemic.”
“Now look at that. You can ask permission to pay with your glasses. Then I can approve it with my relic. You get the right to spend the money from your bank account. Finally, you get a T-rex spitting flames and dancing like Justin Bieber!”
“Justin Bieber? Papi, you are soooooooooo old”
“Yeah… I know”
“But I know things that you don’t”
“Ok tell me! Tell me pleeeeaaaassseeeeee!”
“Did you know that, in fact, you are not paying directly? It is your T-Rex that sends a payment to Amazon?”
“Seriously??? How come???”
“Ok. When I was still working at the bank, we figured out that autonomous cars were always connected to the internet because they needed specific cloud resources. As you know, the management of a fleet of cars is completely reliant upon the vehicle’s intelligence and collective intelligence. To operate correctly, each car needs to dynamically allocate computing power. I mean significant computing power. Now everything is quantum computing and photonic memory, it was ridiculous compared to now. The allocation is performed by buying volumes of TPU in the Financial Stock Exchanges. Funny story though, this is how Nvidia came to dominate by far the NASDAQ.
Besides, these cars were expensive to make. Thus, they needed to come with insurance from a third-party company. So what we decided at the bank is to create a bank account for Things. Nowadays, we generalized this concept to almost all objects. Fridges, washing machines, carrybots, you named it. So, in your case, the T-rex you received on your birthday has:
a bank account
a 10 years insurance bound to it
a return policy that mummy and daddy can use if they want, and the list of features unlocked
There is also a piece of information that says “this T-rex belongs to Aleïs Huchard”. Thus even if you lose it, someone can bring it to the nearest Post office and a delivery drone will bring it back to you. Isn’t that great?”
“How does the bank knows that it is mine?”
“Actually the bank does not know. The bank information system request the Worldwide Identity Service — a blockchain so to speak — to verify that this object is yours and it is safe to send a payment to Amazon. And since the monthly spending limit on your toy that your parent has set is not reached, you can buy your options. I mean the T-rex can pay for its hot upgrade, ah ah ah!”
We are both laughing loud together.
I continue with “ What do you want for your upcoming birthday? I was thinking about a trip or something”.
“Yes, I’d like to go to Senegal. You find the best Agrotech schools there.”
“You’re already thinking about university? Geez, you’re growing so fast.”
“Indeed. According to my personal finance advisor, we all have to save €20 per month on our “special event group account”. Annnnnd, this is me supposing I’ll receive €50 from you, Granny, Mummy, Daddy, and auntie Azea at my birthday!”.
“Yeah, sure you can count on that…. When did you become so good at finance?”
“I simply asked my personal financial advisor.”
“Can you show me?”
“Sure, here it is”. She looked at me with her glasses and made a swipe gesture in the air like I used to do on my NotSoSmartphone.
A hologram pops up. I was expecting a dude in suit-and-tie, like… a banker. How cliché. Instead, it was an oldish robot covered with rust. And says “How may I help you, Yannick”.
“Show me your list of features, please?”
“Sure, here it is”
A mind map of all features floats in the air. Then I say “I get it, this is an upgraded version of mine. I guess I should ask questions more often to my own personal advisor to train it with my needs. Or even better, I am going to ask your personal finance advisor to train mine. Although mine looks much more friendly. Why this robotic face, Aleïs? It looks like a half-baked Optimus Prime!”
“Don’t you like this skin, Papi? If you don’t like it, just change it. You can replace skins and voices. Check the marketplace.”
“Hmm… Open the marketplace please”
Now I am checking the marketplace. I see a lot of stuff produced by independent artists. Ever since ING came up with the “Platform Bank” idea, all Banks built their own “Financial Auchan”
See that, I can buy ad spaces on social media… Buy games on Playstation XR… Hmm… Buy tuition to the Elon Musk School of Technology… And, oh, even get me the avatar of Gary Vee for defining my attention strategy. Sweet.
Ah… Skins…
Oh, you can even buy Investment Strategies too !? “The Warren Buffet Strategy by Eleanor Neetz”… “The Silent Investor, by the Wall Street Journal”… “The Sustainable Index Strategy” is currently trending. And they even have a leaderboard now. Wow, did you know that the top performer of the month won €34023! Little one, your friends, and you should buy this strategy to fund your trip!”
And she replies “You prefer Social Network Investments to cool Skins, Papy? Your so oooooooooold!”
Understand what new business models, organization models, like DAO, and features the Web 3.0 is bringing with respect to Web 2.0. Then research how Web 2.0 and 3.0 complement each other.
Select one Blockchain technology and stick to it, in the beginning, to understand how Dapps are being built, distributed, and promoted in the ecosystem. Some of the most popular depending on your areas of interest: Uniswap (DeFi), OpenSea (Digital Art, NFT), Axie Infinity (Gaming), …
Understand token economics and how it is possible to have such a huge valuation and market capitalization.
Learn to use blockchain tools like Etherscan and Bitcoin Explorer, to see all Ethereum Blockchain transactions. And now is the time to look up your own wallet!
Then, you could fund your wallet using the most popular and safest Crypto Trade Exchanges like Kraken, Coindesk, or Crypto.com. Notice that you can buy cryptocurrencies with Paypal, but you currently cannot transfer them to your own wallet. Paypal is holding bitcoin for you.
Follow the various companies and foundations expanding the web 3.0 (tech websites, Twitter) to grasp how the ecosystem is expanding. Then, ask yourself how these companies are regulated.
Interact on LinkedIn, Twitter, and Reddit with knowledgeable people and enthusiasts.
If you are an IT engineer, start programming with Solidity. I find the Truffle Suite genuinely good to build Smart Contracts and NFTs in an easy way.
